The quick read
- This is the strongest new-construction negotiating position in well over a decade, and the reason is inventory, not generosity.
- Nationally there were 488,000 new homes for sale in July 2026 — 9.6 months’ supply, against a historically balanced level around six.
- 101,000 of the South’s 301,000 new homes for sale were already completed. A finished, empty house is the most motivated inventory in the business.
- Lennar’s average incentive reached $54,947 per home in Q2 2026 — 12.9% of sales price, against $12,074 in Q3 2022.
- 63% of builders were using incentives in August 2026; 35% cut prices outright, averaging 6%.
- The leverage is in the incentives, not the base price — builders defend base price because it sets the comps for every remaining lot.
- This tracker is updated quarterly.
New construction in Central Florida is the most negotiable it has been in a long time. Understanding why tells you where to push.
Why builders are discounting this hard
Builders kept building through a demand slowdown, and the result is a large overhang of completed, unsold homes concentrated in the South. Carrying finished inventory is expensive — so builders would rather protect the headline price and give the money away as incentives. Which is exactly why the incentive, not the sticker, is where a buyer should negotiate.
The national numbers
| Indicator | Reading | Period & source |
|---|---|---|
| New homes for sale, US | 488,000 (9.6 months' supply) | July 2026, US Census Bureau |
| Of which completed | 117,000 nationally; 101,000 in the South alone | July 2026, US Census Bureau |
| New home sales pace | 607,000 SAAR, down 10.5% from June | July 2026, US Census Bureau |
| Median new home price, US | $393,800 | July 2026, US Census Bureau |
| NAHB/Wells Fargo builder confidence | 35 — 16th consecutive month below 40 | August 2026, NAHB |
| …South region | 31 | August 2026, NAHB |
| Builders using sales incentives | 63% | August 2026, NAHB/Wells Fargo |
| Builders cutting prices outright | 35%, averaging a 6% reduction | August 2026, NAHB/Wells Fargo |
| Lennar average incentive per home | $54,947 (12.9% of sales price) | Q2 2026, Lennar earnings |
| 30-year fixed mortgage average | 6.76% | 10 September 2026, Freddie Mac PMMS |
The Lennar figure is the one to sit with. An average incentive of $54,947, at 12.9% of sales price, against $12,074 in Q3 2022. That is not a promotion. That is a structural change in how the product is being sold.
The Orlando picture
Metro Orlando's resale market was running at 4.4 months of supply, a $410,494 median and 64 days on market as of the Orlando Regional Realtor Association's July 2026 report — conditions ORRA itself describes as continuing to shift toward buyers. New construction is competing into that.
The top five builders by Orlando-area permits in July 2026: Pulte (192), Lennar (116), D.R. Horton (100), Taylor Morrison (66) and M/I Homes (62).
What is being offered on the ground
| Builder | Reported rate buydown | Reported closing-cost credit | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lennar | 5.25%–5.50% | up to ~$25,000 | "Everything's Included"; strong spec inventory. Co-op availability is community-specific. |
| Pulte / Del Webb | 5.25%–5.50% | up to ~$25,000 | Highest Orlando permit volume; Horizon West, Lake Nona, EverBe, The Grow |
| D.R. Horton | — | up to ~$20,000 | Largest inventory position in the metro; Osceola, Polk, Lake |
| Toll Brothers | 5.50%–5.75% | up to ~$30,000 | Compensates buyer agents company-wide per its published policy |
| Taylor Morrison | — | up to ~$25,000 | Wellness Way, Sunbridge |
| Meritage | — | up to ~$22,000 | Publishes an exception to the first-visit registration rule |
| KB Home | — | up to ~$18,000 | Requires a signed buyer-broker agreement predating the purchase agreement |
| LGI | — | up to ~$15,000 | Entry-level, Osceola/Polk corridor |
Negotiate the incentive, not the base price
Builders protect base price because every closed sale sets the appraisal comparable for the remaining lots in the community. Incentives do not appear in the recorded sale price. That is why a builder will hand you $40,000 in buydown and credits before conceding $15,000 on the sticker.
Once you understand that, the negotiation gets simpler. Stop asking for a discount and start asking what else can go into the incentive package:
- Rate buydown. Usually the largest single item, and usually tied to the builder's affiliated lender. Run the comparison honestly — a permanent buydown at the builder's lender against a market rate elsewhere, over the period you actually expect to hold the loan.
- Closing cost credit, typically conditioned on using the affiliated lender and title company.
- Design centre allowance. This is real money and is frequently negotiable separately from the other two.
- Included structural or finish upgrades on a spec home that is already built — they cost the builder nothing at that point.
- Appliances, blinds, fencing, landscaping — the items that follow you home and are otherwise a post-closing cash outlay.
- The lot premium. On a completed spec that has been standing, this is sometimes the softest number on the sheet.
The quick-move-in point
A finished, empty house is the most motivated inventory a builder has: it is fully capitalised, it is carrying cost every month, and it is visible on the balance sheet. With 101,000 completed new homes for sale in the South in July 2026, that inventory is not scarce. If timing allows, a standing spec is generally where the best package is.
Questions to ask at the sales centre
- Register your agent on the first visit. Most builders require it, and most will not apply co-op compensation retroactively. Meritage publishes an exception; KB Home requires a signed buyer-broker agreement predating the purchase agreement. Check the specific builder's policy before you walk in alone.
- Is the incentive tied to the affiliated lender, and what is the rate if it is not? Get both quotes in writing.
- Is the buydown permanent or temporary? A 2-1 temporary buydown and a permanent rate are very different products presented with similar-sounding numbers.
- What is the CDD assessment on this specific lot, split between debt service and operations and maintenance, and what year do the bonds mature? See our CDD article — this is the number most often left out of the payment conversation.
- What is the HOA, on top of the CDD?
- What does insurance cost on this house? New construction generally underwrites well, but get the actual quote.
- What is the contract deadline on this incentive, and what happens if the home is not finished on time?
- What have the last three closings in this phase actually sold for? Recorded sale prices are public.
One structural caution worth repeating: a builder's contract is the builder's contract. It is not the standard Florida form, the deposit terms and remedies are different, and the warranty provisions deserve a real read. Have someone review it who is representing you.
This tracker is updated quarterly.
Sources
- US Census Bureau — New Residential Sales, July 2026 — census.gov
- NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, August 2026 — nahb.org
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey — freddiemac.com
- Lennar Corporation — investor relations and quarterly results — investors.lennar.com
- Orlando Regional Realtor Association — housing market narrative — orlandorealtors.org
